Bud Withers' Blog

In the runup to the Connecticut-Gonzaga hoops matchup last week at Climate Pledge Arena, the cheap-seat price on StubHub dropped into the 20s.

Too much Husky-centric euphoria, maybe, over their undefeated football season. Too much focus on the sputtering Seahawks. Too much angst spent on a Mariner franchise forever crying poor.

And, lets face it, too little Zags.

This feels like new and uneasy territory for Gonzaga, after another disquieting loss, the 76-63 defeat Friday night to the defending national champions. Actually, the Zags have been here before, and it’s not a comfortable place to be. More on that later.

They stand 8-3, hardly cause for panic, except that they’ve revealed themselves to be without star power, without depth in the backcourt, without reliable perimeter shooting or fluid offense, and very possibly, without a clear path to the sort of March stage they’ve mounted for going on a decade.

Since 2016-17, the year Nigel Williams-Goss became eligible, Gonzaga has entered the NCAA tournament as no worse than a No. 4 seed, and four times a No. 1, credentials that reflected Final Four and even national-title potential.

This team is not that. It’s all out there for Gonzaga, and not in a good way. The run of eight straight Sweet 16s is in deep trouble. The astonishing streak of 14 opening-round victories in the NCAA tournament is fragile, because, no, it’s hardly a lock that the Zags make the thing at all, something they’ve done 25 straight times.

It may not be an overstatement to say that to a large extent, the Zags’ fate rests in the hands of Los Angeles. Their two best victories are over UCLA and USC, and weekend losses by both dropped them to 5-4 and 5-5, respectively.

The season looks a lot like 2015-16, when the Zags fumbled multiple opportunities at key victories and entered March with a single quality win, over No. 9-seeded UConn. That team came together down the stretch, burst to the WCC tournament championship (after losing twice to Saint Mary’s), crashed the Sweet 16 and was a bad finish against Syracuse away from the Elite Eight.

Relative weakness of the WCC is probably more of a hindrance than a boon. Yes, that makes the automatic berth ostensibly easier, but it also dilutes the value of beating those teams and buffing the at-large resume. Saint Mary’s is a mere 6-5, and if the WCC doesn’t afford at least a couple of opportunities to impress, Gonzaga is left with San Diego State Dec. 29 and Kentucky Feb. 10.

The season-ending injury to Eastern Washington transfer Steele Venters has been a killer, stripping the Zags of likely their best outside shooter and causing everybody else to adjust to try to caulk that deficit. Meanwhile, Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman are forced to play too many minutes in the backcourt because there’s nobody else available, and neither has been a revelation.

Progress by Seoul import Jun Seok Yeo would enhance the flexibility in the backcourt. In the meantime, it’s particularly painful for Zag partisans to see two GU ex-pats, Hunter Sallis and Dominick Harris, prospering elsewhere, leading Wake Forest and Loyola Marymount, respectively, in scoring.

At Washington eight days ago, after the Zags took an 11-point lead with about 14 minutes left, they finished by going 3 for 18 with six turnovers. The offense was a total mess, and if you want to attribute that to a Husky team that previously couldn’t stop anybody, go ahead.

The other night on the Field of 68 podcast, Rob Dauster and Jeff Goodman ruminated on the state of Gonzaga, and the tenor was sobering. Goodman noted, rightly, that there’s nobody on the roster that strikes fear in an opponent, nobody on the scouting report that must be taken away. He wondered aloud whether this season finally reflects the impact Tommy Lloyd used to have on the roster.

Mark Few, a steady-as-she-goes kind of guy, would no doubt preach caution. There are almost three months of opportunities, a lot of room for growth, and no epitaphs advisable in mid-December. And because Gonzaga punched so far above its weight in recent years – four No. 1 seeds in six tournaments! – the shortfall is so pronounced.

Yet here we are. When the season began, it wasn’t unreasonable to think that this would finally be the year the Zags’ output dovetailed with Spokane’s hosting of an NCAA-tournament subregional. But right on schedule – for its fans, maddeningly uncanny schedule -- this is the cue for Gonzaga to have an off-year.

Spokane Arena hosted in 2003, and 07-10-14-16. Gonzaga (31-2) was headed there, finally, in 2020, and the pandemic blew up everything. Twelve times the Zags have had a No. 4 seed or better – pretty much the standard to get a “preferred” site – and none have matched up with Arena hosting years.

That streak, shake your head, seems almost certain to continue. It’s the others that don’t look like a slam-dunk.

For a good long time now, Saint Mary’s has been Gonzaga’s bete noire in the West Coast Conference, the program that occasionally made a mess of a perfectly good party.

Never mind that the Zags have won about three games in every four played in the long-running subplot of Mark Few versus Randy Bennett. When you’ve ridden herd in a conference for as long as Gonzaga, the losses have a way of sticking with fans almost more than the wins.

As recently as 10 months ago, the Gaels did it to the Zags, as freshman guard Aidan Mahaney erased a forgettable night with a spectacular few minutes down the stretch in an overtime victory.

Twice in recent years, Saint Mary’s has short-sheeted No. 1-ranked Gonzaga clubs: It happened to the Chet Holmgren team two years ago, 67-57, late in the season in Moraga; and even more shocking, in the WCC tournament final of 2019, 60-47. That night, Corey Kispert, Zach Norvell and Josh Perkins combined to shoot 1 for 11 on threes, and making the occasion more incredible was that Gonzaga had beaten the same team 31 days earlier by the score of 94-46.

Now Saint Mary’s has found a different way to torment its oppressors.

Suddenly, the Gaels have lost their way.

They entered a Tuesday-night game with Cleveland State having lost five of six games. The 3-5 record represents the most losses this early in the past 20 years of the program.

Hah, the Gonzaga partisan might say. This is a good thing.

Well, not so much, because in their annoying-little-brother role to Gonzaga, the Gaels have been a useful foil. They’ve been somebody good, a reminder to keep the Zags engaged through the dog days of the season and a worthwhile pelt when the NCAA basketball committee gets to assigning seeds and sites in March.

What’s to keep Gonzaga interested once the calendar rolls to 2024? Brigham Young has split for the Big 12, and wouldn’t you know it, BYU is ranked 14th by AP this week. If Saint Mary’s is going to continue mucking through its season, there isn’t an opponent on GU’s league schedule that would burnish a resume.

The Zags have acquitted themselves well, losing only to Purdue and bagging victories over probable NCAA-tournament timber UCLA and USC. Which means, if Saint Mary’s doesn’t experience a revival, there would be only three remaining NCAA threats on Gonzaga's schedule -- Connecticut Dec. 16, San Diego State Dec. 29, and at Kentucky Feb. 10.

Bennett’s Gaels have scheduled harder this year. But they’ve also fallen harder, losing to San Diego State by 25 and Xavier by 17.

“They’ve scheduled like he never has before,” said Boise State coach Leon Rice, the former Zag assistant, whose team won 63-60 the other night over Saint Mary’s. “When you have a hard one, one after another after another, it can stack up on you.”

Saint Mary’s has been an offensive mess, shooting just .428 (260th in Division I), .299 from the three-point line and .629 on free throws. At least the improved schedule has minimized the computer damage; the Gaels are a respectable 65th in the KenPom rankings, implying that it’s not that farfetched to rescue a move toward the NCAA tournament.

“They’re gonna be good, it’s not like they’ve disappeared,” Rice insists. “You watch, they’re gonna win nine of their next 10.”

If they do, Zag fans will have to love it, even while they’re hating it.